The British federal elections this year have become very interesting as of late. Based off of the poll included in this post, (The Telegraph) the Conservatives have taken the lead once more, with Labour in second and the UK Independence Party in third. The Liberal Democrats have yet to recover from their drop and the Greens are struggling to even stay relevant. Here's my breakdown and prediction of the 2015 British Elections. First of all, there is the question of majority, minority, and coalition. I think this election will end up in coalition once more, but with whom it is difficult to say. The first possibility is another Tory-LibDem coalition, the second possibility is a Labour-LibDem coalition. A Tory-Libdem coalition would land us in the same position we're currently in; a slow economic recovery accompanied by low paying jobs with little return, zero hour contracts, and little action on the environment or change in austerity measures. A Labour-LibDem coalition is less likely than a Tory-LibDem coalition while Clegg is still leader, due to Miliband speaking unfavorably about him multiple times in the past year. However, critics say that this coalition could lead to more favorable economic recovery as well as less austerity. Although Labour voted for austerity previously, they are less extreme than the Tories on the topic of Austerity. I personally would favour a Labour-Libdem coalition Thoughith Miliband's criticism of Clegg it seems unlikely. Information from a recent poll, however, shows that 52% of Libdem voters would favour a Labour-Libdem coalition over another coalition with the Tories. Now is the question of why Labour is failing to rise in the polls. After years of Tories in office, the opposition would typically have a surge in popularity. But, Labour is seemingly stagnant in the popularity polls. Experts say this could either be an effect of the economic crash caused by the previous Labour government, or that the British people are becoming more conservative and right wing as the recent topics of immigration and LGBT rights are becoming more openly discussed. There is, of course, the possibility of a majority government.. But it seems that neither the Tories nor Labour will be able to gain a majority of seats at this rate. Labour has lost it's radical edge since New-Labour, thus moving the country towards the right as a result. Labour isn't appealing to the left, nor is it appealing to the Centrists. Their target audience? is very small at this point, although many voters will still vote Labour out of habit. The Greens are similar to what Old-Labour was. The only hope for Labour now is to regain that radical edge, regain the Old-Labour spirit that is long gone, because right now Labour might as well be a Tory-Lite party. Why would you vote for the Tory-Lites when you could vote for the real deal? Labour is simply too irresponsible with the economy right now to be trusted with running a nation who is trying to throw off the shackles of an economic tsunami. As of right now, I support the LibDems. I would support Labour if they regained the radical edge, but, a centrist party is better then a Center-Left party in my opinion. The LibDems borrow less than Labour, and cut less than the Conservatives. I think they're the only party that can carefully lift the country back up and keep it from once again falling. As for Ukip, they're losing support slowly due to the seemingly non-existent progress on their single issue, leaving the EU. A coalition between Ukip and any other party is, to all intents and purposes, impossible, as a majority of voters from all other parties support staying a part of the EU. Risking losing that percentage is not something Labour or the Conservatives can gamble with. To conclude, my prediction is that the next election will end in another Tory-Libdem coalition and things will continue as they have been for the past few years, the NHS will continue to be privatized, austerity measures will continue to be imposed on the British people, and the speed of recovery will most definitely not speed up. |
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